The autonomous aircraft market is estimated to register a CAGR of over 8% during the forecast period, 2020 - 2025.
- Growing usage of artificial intelligence technology is expected to increase the autonomy of the aircraft, thereby propelling the growth of the market in the coming years.
- The airline industry is now facing a shortage of pilots, and the adoption of autonomous aircraft can address this issue in the near future.
- Increasing development of autonomous aircraft for civil aviation due to the associated benefits, such as safety, reliability, and affordability can lead to growth of the market in the coming years.
Key Market Trends
Autonomous Cargo Aircraft Expected to Hit the Market Earlier than the Autonomous Passenger Aircraft
Cargo planes are expected to be the first to adopt this autonomous aircraft technology. In passenger flights, safety and the lives of people are given the paramount importance, and thus, the adoption of the autonomous aircraft should start after continuous and rigorous testing is done. This is not the case with the cargo aircraft, as the level of life risk is zero with the use of autonomous aircraft in cargo planes. Additionally, the growth in the e-commerce industry is driving the air cargo demand, which may increase the demand for air cargo pilots in the near future. Hence, most of the developments in the autonomous aircraft market are aimed at bringing the autonomous cargo aircraft into commercial use, to fill in the gap due to the pilot shortage. Boeing’s futuristic NeXt division oversees its heavy-duty drone prototype that is capable of lifting a 500-pound payload. The so-called “cargo air vehicle” conducted its first indoor flight test last year, and may move to outdoor testing in 2019. Many such developments are currently underway, and these are expected to help the autonomous cargo aircraft to be introduced into the market within the next decade.
North America is Expected to Witness the Highest Growth During the Forecast Period
North America currently has the highest market share in the autonomous aircraft market, due to the high number of procurements of tactical autonomous UAVs in the region. Additionally, various developments in the North America region, in terms of autonomous aircraft may lead to the region being the fastest growing one. Currently, the United States is increasingly focused on the development of autonomous aircraft. The United States has hit a roadblock in the usage of such aircraft for commercial applications, due to governmental regulations, but the growing scale of autonomous aircraft development may lead to its growth in the coming years. Technological advancement, which is high in countries, like the United States, has led to the development of advanced autonomous aircraft, which can adapt to changing conditions, as well as handle flying situations, without any human intervention. Likewise, in the near future, autonomous aircraft can also increasingly be used for the transportation of cargo, and North America is expected to be the pioneer to all these. Thus, various ongoing developments may lead to the growth of the industry in North America in the near future.
The Boeing Company, Airbus SE, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Textron Inc. (Bell Helicopters), and BAE Systems plc are some of the prominent players in the market. Most of the development in the autonomous aircraft technology is done in the UAV industry, and the market still trails development in passenger and cargo carrying aircraft. Companies, like Airbus SE and The Boeing Company, have presented their autonomous air taxi concepts recently, and many companies are yet to follow. Bell, a unit of Textron Inc., is also working on its autonomous pod transport. Thus, the market is expanding to the commercial transportation sector, and the relatively new concepts are opening many opportunities for players to venture into the market.
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1.1 Study Assumptions
1.2 Scope of the Study
2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 MARKET DYNAMICS
4.1 Market Overview
4.2 Market Drivers
4.3 Market Restraints
4.4 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.4.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.4.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
4.4.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.4.4 Threat of Substitute Products
4.4.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
5 MARKET SEGMENTATION
5.1 Aircraft Type
5.2.1 Cargo Aircraft
5.2.2 Passenger Aircraft
5.4.1 North America
5.4.4 Rest of the World
6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Vendor Market Share
6.2 Company Profiles
6.2.1 Northrop Grumann Corporation
6.2.2 The Boeing Company
6.2.3 Lockheed Martin Corporation
6.2.4 Raytheon Company
6.2.5 Elbit Systems Ltd
6.2.6 AeroVironment, Inc.
6.2.7 Saab AB
6.2.8 BAE Systems plc
6.2.9 Airbus SE
6.2.10 Textron Inc. (Bell Helicopters)
6.2.11 Israel Aerospace Industries
7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS
Secondary Research Information is collected from a number of publicly available as well as paid databases. Public sources involve publications by different associations and governments, annual reports and statements of companies, white papers and research publications by recognized industry experts and renowned academia etc. Paid data sources include third party authentic industry databases.
Once data collection is done through secondary research, primary interviews are conducted with different stakeholders across the value chain like manufacturers, distributors, ingredient/input suppliers, end customers and other key opinion leaders of the industry. Primary research is used both to validate the data points obtained from secondary research and to fill in the data gaps after secondary research.
The market engineering phase involves analyzing the data collected, market breakdown and forecasting. Macroeconomic indicators and bottom-up and top-down approaches are used to arrive at a complete set of data points that give way to valuable qualitative and quantitative insights. Each data point is verified by the process of data triangulation to validate the numbers and arrive at close estimates.
The market engineered data is verified and validated by a number of experts, both in-house and external.
REPORT WRITING/ PRESENTATION
After the data is curated by the mentioned highly sophisticated process, the analysts begin to write the report. Garnering insights from data and forecasts, insights are drawn to visualize the entire ecosystem in a single report.